New research looks to expand severe weather outlooks beyond the synoptic weather time scale toward subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales.

A recent study published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment suggests that summertime low clouds play an important role in driving sea ice melt. 

Weather and climate models are an essential part of predicting extreme weather events and projecting future changes in climate. Since these models can enable better disaster preparedness and reduce risks related to extreme weather, it is important to ensure that their simulations include limited bias or error.

Accurately simulating summertime large-scale circulation, as well as the cloud response to circulation, is a critical step toward increasing the reliability of seasonal sea ice forecasts and the rate of future sea ice loss.

In NCEI’s database of billion-dollar flooding disasters, many of the most significant events occur in the late Winter or early Spring due to rain and snowmelt overcoming stream and river channel capacity. These events individually frequently reach $5-10 billion in damages.