Climate Variability And Household Welfare In The Andes: Farmer Adaptation And Use Of Weather Forecasts In Decision-Making

PI: Corinne Valdivia & Jere L. Gilles, University of Missouri-Columbia
Roberto Quiroz, International Potato Center
Christian Jettè, United Nations Development Program-Bolivia, Fundación PROINPA - Bolivia, (Foundation for promotion and research of Andean products), CIRNMA - Peru (National resources and the environment research center)

Project Period: 1999

Progress Report 2000-2001 (pdf)
Progress Report 2001-2002 (pdf)
Final Report (pdf)
Illustrations (pdf)

Abstract

Climatic variability in the Andean region is characterized by periodic droughts, El Niño events, and frosts. Production and consumption decisions are shaped by these events, impacting on household food security. Our research aims to answer the following questions: 1) What have farmers developed as successful strategies to cope with climatic variation in the Andean region; 2) How do farmers currently use information from forecasts and local sources to make production and consumption decisions; and 3) What mechanisms and institutions facilitate or constrain the utilization of information about climatic risk. This research takes place in the Andean region, in agropastoral communities in the Province of Aroma in the Central Altiplano of Bolivia, and in the Province of Ilave Puno, the Southern Altiplano of Peru.

The unit of analysis of rural strategies to cope with climate variability is the household and its individuals in their relation to markets and communities. The analysis of household strategies encompasses the portfolios of economic activities, and understanding the role of diversification. The vulnerability of various household strategies is measured in terms of the diversity index of the economic portfolio, the level of consumption, and the role of assets that households access and/or control. The sustainable livelihoods framework and peasant household economics inform the study of economic strategies and portfolios. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are used to analyze the changes and to understand the diversity of coping strategies. Case studies in Bolivia identify the variety of coping mechanisms in relation to their contingency mechanisms and safety nets. Crop and livestock models are used to compare local strategies under climate variability.

Household strategies respond to market incentives conditioned by access to resources. Potato production shifts from consumption as the sole motive in Bolivia in 1993 to market in 1999. A group of early adopters of dairy at the end of the 1980s continues to focus on dairy from 1993 to 1999. Coping mechanisms differ among households. Potato producers became less diversified and lost livestock assets, while dairy producers were able to access labor markets in times of stress and credit, as milk sales became a collateral. Less diversified strategies experienced greater losses during droughts such as el Niño of 1997-1998. Production and yields dropped significantly among the elderly and commercial potato producers in 1999. An important buffer stock for all groups was chuño.

Network analysis provides the framework to understand the mechanisms to access information. Our goal in Bolivia was to analyze the networks used to transfer forecast information within indigenous communities and between the scientific forecasters and user communities. Our goal in Peru was to identify the array of forecast tools used by local producers to determine the paths this information took within the communities. Both of these efforts seek to identify the types of individuals that affect the transfer of forecast information within individual communities. In addition, the structure of information networks is being studied in order to identify opportunities for enhancing the access of farmers to improved forecast information. To date, there is little use of formal forecast information by farm decision-makers. Instead, a variety of local indicators are used. We found that traditional forecast tools were widely understood by the members of both of our study communities. Nonetheless, most producers did not use their personal observations of traditional indicators in their production decisions. Instead, they relied on local experts who had a reputation as successful potato producers. These local opinion leaders were generally older community members, many of who formerly held leadership roles in the community. Few were current community leaders. In addition, most of the local leaders did not incorporate scientific forecasts into their own production decisions. It appears that most producers in our two communities do not believe that scientific forecasts were applicable at the local level. Current attempts in Bolivia to link peasants and scientific forecasters through municipal governments and local elected leaders seem unlikely to be successful. Tactics must be developed to link traditional experts and scientific forecasts.

http://clima.missouri.edu