Forecasting the Condition of Sea Ice on Weekly to Seasonal Time Scales

PI: Dr. Ignatius Rigor, Mathematician, Polar Science Center/Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington
Co-I: LT Magda Hanna, Science Transitions Officer, National/Naval Ice Center

Funding Period: July 1, 2005 - June 30, 2008

Dr. Ignatius Rigor?s Homepage

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Abstract
The Arctic has long been considered a harbinger of global climate change since numerical simulations of global climate change predict that if the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere doubles, the greenhouse warming signal will be much greater at high latitudes. This Òpolar amplificationÓ of the global warming is attributed to changes in sea ice and snow (ice-snow albedo feedback). Indeed, many studies of the observational records show polar amplification of the warming trends, and three of the last six summers have set record minima for Arctic sea ice extent. This summer appears to be on pace to set a new record minimum. Could we have predicted these past minima? Through this proposal, we plan to answer this question, and hope to improve our operational capability to predict the conditions of Arctic sea ice so we can forecast future minima with demonstrable skill. The proposed work stems naturally from the long standing collaboration between the National/Naval Ice Center and the Polar Science Center which have been working together to maintain the network of drifting buoys on the Arctic Ocean as part of the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP; http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/). The IABP provides observations that support both operational weather and ice forecasting, and climate research. In this proposal we plan to improve the operational capability of the National/Naval Ice Center to predict Arctic sea ice conditions on weekly to seasonal time scales. The forecasts provided by the NIC help resources managers, navigators and hunters make better decisions regarding Arctic sea ice. Accurate sea ice information is important to Naval operations. Accurate routing information through ice, based on models that have been designed to predict ice thickness and ice motion is imperative to decreasing operating costs and increasing safety of life at sea (see letter of support from Robert S. Winokur, Technical Director, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, attached at the end of our proposal).

The objectives of this proposal are to:

1. Analyze new observations from ice mass balance buoys, and other sources of in situ sea ice thickness observations, to validate the National/Naval Ice CenterÕs current prediction models; and
2. Exploit the significant lag correlations between variations in atmospheric circulation and sea ice extent to produce long range forecasts of Arctic sea ice conditions. The forecasts provided by the NIC help resource managers, navigators and hunters make better decisions regarding Arctic sea ice.

Contact Information

Dr. Ignatius Rigor, Mathematician, Polar Science Center/Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105-2571
(206) 685-2571, igr@aok.washington.edu

LT Magda Hanna, Science Transitions Officer, National/Naval Ice Center, 4251 Suitland Road, FB4-Room 2301Washington, DC 20395
mhanna@natice.noaa.gov; 301-394-3120